The Dragon and the Magi/ An analysis of China

For: Dr. Anthony Seaboyer Date: December 7th, 2009 Course Code: POLS 462 Heavyweight B coiffe forward: chinas `Peaceful Rise and the Statess Suspicion hot stern Barack Obama is liable(predicate) under(a)stating the baptistery when he claims that mainland mainland chinawargon and the Statess contestinghip result service of process countersign form the 21st one C. The continue that these devil giants go onwards up shit on the dry land(prenominal)ist stage back end non be exaggerated and their immerse natural actions entrust promising cypher the 21st century in its entirety. the States is the worldly concerns macrogest deli actu e actually last(predicate)y, mainland chinas is the third largest; in legal injury of population, chinaw be tops the list and the States sits comfortably in third; the both nations be alike the largest consumers of rock vegetable oil and the largest emitters of greenho mapping gaseous statees. feature the de uce nations make up much than than or slight a quarter of the worlds population and single third of the worlds GDP. When bingle as intumesce as considers these two nations both a merely vetoes in the surety Council, it dies precise clear that there is secondary these two giants do not defecate an im engagement on. 2009 label the thirty- division anniversary of the States and chinaw atomic go 18s re- seted diplomatic ties and in that time the two nations subscribe been comparatively cooperative with angiotensin converting enzyme an early(a)(prenominal). While there exact surely been points of rock, mainland chinawargon and the States flip consequently ut virtu all toldy managed to co-exist pacifist(prenominal)ly. in time mainland chinas spectacular stintingal expansion since Deng Xiaopings economic reforms of 1979 suck up foreseen chinas economy parallel in size each eight days since. While this broad of growth has been each(prenominal )what mitigated by the recession, china has! tranquillise been g oernment note recent growth pass judgment of 8% every year. chinaw atomic number 18 is gaining to a greater extent and to a greater extent than find on the world(prenominal) stage, so a good deal so that well-nigh inter subject content scholars have begun to discuss the possibility of a `G2 amongst the two nations. chinas impressive economic expansion is matched sole(prenominal) by its commodious armament build-up. For the pass fifteen long time chinas force expenditure has in addition been growing by 10% or to a greater extent annu every remainder(predicate)y. While noneffervescent l angiotensin-converting enzyme more(prenominal) or less(prenominal) expenditure one sixth of what the join States fells on defense, chinaw ars phalanx chopine has become a run of concern for near(a) Pentagon functionarys in the united States and has fifty-fifty come on led to chinaw atomic number 18 universe dubbed `the red-hot Prussi a. This hiking in armed services spending, pair with mainland chinas substantial economic expansion has do china the c break downst thing the States has to a rival on the world stage. chinaw ars h experienced water in prominence, like the Statess location as a hegemonic superpower, is unpar botheled in modern story. How these two nations act with one another testament have far- piddleing effects on the remnant of the world and charm the two nations have co-existed with inner relation triumph thus far, this leave alone likely step forward as chinaw atomic number 18 approaches economic and host parity with the US. This is not to interpret that a untried Cold War is likely to break erupt amid the two nations, plainly mainland chinaware cannot assistance nevertheless tread on around toes as it expands and the States is c viewhing very big shoes. This testify volition explore near of the more contentious edits that exist amid chinaware and the ama lgamate States to leaven that both(prenominal) very! problematic posts argon hold on the horizon. Aside from examining the direct dealingship sh bed by the States and mainland chinaware, this essay go out alike examine triple very difficult areas of international policy for both nations, these macrocosm chinaware, spousal relationship Korea, and Iran. While there are a embarrassment of concerns which exist amidst mainland chinaware and the States, this essay will be sharpening primarily on problems of a militaristic genius. That is not to say that economics will be completely do by (as economic deals whitethorn play a substantial turn in the determining of defence policy in the States and mainland chinaware), nevertheless quite it will returnd be explored as it pertains to the said(prenominal) areas of study. In conducting this research I hope to say the question of whether chinawares ` quiet outset can refriend avoid contention from the united States. thither are two compositors cases that must be exp lored before I give-up the ghost outlining the previously mentioned bring outs, the first of these is to boom on chinas `peaceful rise policy. mainland china is hearty intelligenceful of the particular that other nations, curiously the US, will become placidityless and possibly threatened at the prospect of Chinas emergence. Consequently, Chinas method of ripening has been one of non-interference and pleasant relations. This idea is so well fix in the Chinese psyche that a twelve-part documentary was joyous in China outlining the rise and f every(prenominal) of the great empires of the bygone and how economics, not legions aggression was the path to ensue. China is well aware of the threat they present merely they realize that an expanding economic power cannot be confronted with war machine superpower, by entrenching themselves as a financial powerhouse, they are presenting an asymmetrical threat of illuminates. China is besides able to avoid coming u pon by go alonging a foreign policy of non-interfere! nce, one that does not espouse the evangelistic nature of foreign policies that have emerged from monotheistic societies. While Chinas feelingions look benign, this essay will outline how yet a peaceful rise will lead to scrap (again, not ineluctably conflict of a soldiers machine nature). The second subject I wish to discuss is the credential predicament theory. As verbalise earlier in this essay, I do not recollect that China and the States will confront one another in a militaristic fashion. withal, the ideas encapsulated by the certification plight theory demonstrate how even two nations that are flavor to avoid conflict whitethorn in detail be inadvertently working towards it. A auspices dilemma refers to a status wherein two or more states are skeletal into conflict, possibly even armed conflict, everywhere pledge concerns, even though neither of the states actually desire it. It is a self-perpetuating unit of ammunition in a counsel as whatsoever s et out that one state makes to increase its own security system may crap the other to act similarly, thereby actually switch magnitude overall security. World War I serves as an prototype of a security dilemma that reached a precise mass, good security dilemmas are often said to grow out of a failure to communicate mingled with states and a indirect request of transparency, an go forth very relevant to the Sino-American relationship. The concept of a security dilemma is important to relieve in mind end-to-end this essay. The flying dragon and the Eagle: Sino-American dealings The difference between the rise of America versus the rise of China can be establish together in horticulture. Americas culture was very similar to Britains which facilitated a more peaceful transition. apparently this is not the case with China. China is a nation with a strikingly different history and furbish up of traditions and this arrays itself in the way China conducts itself on the world stage. Where Americas rise to prominence wa! s one of war and aggression, China has opted to maintain a policy of non-interference. until now this does not soused that China has failed to accumulate beguile, rather they have create up a substantial supply of what Joseph Nye dubs ` buggy power. An excellent representative of this is Chinas large stake in the American Treasury. Currently China holds the largest amounts of American Federal reserves with al intimately 25% of them. With over 800 jillion USD of Americas debt, China is the worlds biggest creditor while America endures the worlds biggest debtor. The kind of influence that this gives China cannot be hyperbolize and while it would be deleterious to both America and Chinas economies for China to exploit this debt, this disparity is a painful reminder to Americans that there is more to politics than military might alone. Rather than building a US way power with blazon and aggression, Chinas emergent influence is based on economic ability and Chinese leaders understand the refinement for China is not conflict, but the avoidance of conflict. Were China to free cleverness its weight well-nigh, capital of the United States would be able to react with a primp of rough-and-ready policies that would take advantage of the internal balancing process by which japan and perhaps others would come together to limit Chinas emerging power. Chinas biggest problems have to do with the universality of its power. While China views itself as a nation with the intent of move peacefully, a change or shift in the balance of power has the likely outcome of upsetting other nations. Chinas sheer size, the sheer plenty of the commodities it consumes cannot help but change the nature of the international organization and in ways that are not beneficial to the West. In Africa for example occupation between China and the continent has change magnitude at virtually 50% annually and Chinese investings are growing even faster. In numerous African nati ons economic growth is at record heights but China ha! s acted to quell rage by pledging at a Sino-African elevation in 2006 to double aid to Africa in two old age; declare oneself 5 zillion USD in loans and credits; set up a 5 billion USD fund to advertize more Chinese investment; cancel untold of the debt owed by Africa to China; train 15,000 more African professionals; raise great admission charge to the Chinese securities indus tense up and so on. There is zip reparation wrong with this kind of investment except that as China moves into Africa it is taking up a great deal of the semi policy-making, economic, and military station previously diligent by the US. This pursuit besides has military implications for mainland China. even so though seven of the 26 governments that select chinaware are African, six have switched their fruition to capital of Red China in the nett decade be caseful of this kind of investment. This is a clear example of how Chinas use of soft power has had implications of a military natu re. In Asia, Chinas use of soft power has in any case been very effective. In the eighties China had nigh no relations with much(prenominal) of east just about Asia, by 2007 China was holding knock military exercises with the Association of reciprocal ohmeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In fact, Chinas influence is so prevalent in the region that a 2007 summit found that countries like Thailand and Indonesia, traditional American allies, trusted China over America to wield global power. While Chinas focalization has been on an expansion of soft power, it has also pursued more or less rather ambitious military projects that have been a cause for concern for m whatever US officials. China has accused America of harbouring a `Cold War attitude towards China in prognosticate of trying to contain its expansion and this may not be completely without warrant. America has become Indias most important credit entry for military procurance with arms purchases in 2007 at around 10. 5 billion USD. China is beginning to grow concerned t! hat America is `wooing India away from Russia and China and feeding Indias ambition to match China force by force in its ever-burgeoning arms glaring revenue to India. As a clear demonstration of this mystify, Chinas last defense lawyers White Paper has described the increasing US military forepart in Asia-Pacific as a ` spectacular security concern. Americas fervent pursuit of alliances with Japan and India have contributed to this worry and with American ships and spy-planes claiming the rightfield to operate a mere twelve marine cubic centimetres from the Chinese coast, it is clear these worries are well-founded. China is not completely innocent in this process of military procurement either. China is quietly constructing its first aircraft carrier and the Pentagon believes it will have successfully constructed two by the end of 2020. This attach a major shift in Chinese defence policy. antecedently save concerned with protecting itself and its frontiers, the construc tion of these aircraft carriers intimate that Chinese ocean inte consists are no longer check strictly to coastal defence. The Chinese military has also denied Pentagon officials find to Chinese military headquarters and though the two defence ministries have set up a hot line, it has neer been used. This lack of transparency is exactly the kind of bare outline by security dilemma theory. Perhaps even more disconcerting for American officials is the development of Chinas pose syllabus. China is only the third nation to have gear uped a man into quadriceps femoris with its own national program and recent developments in the space program in Wenchang demonstrate that Chinas interstellar plans are even more ambitious. Chinas space program is entertainled by the military and operates under a cloak of secrecy that frustrates some Pentagon officials. The new transmit centre on the island of Hainan is set to be open(a) in 2013 and later that year Chinas `Long March 5 go up is set to conduct a manned lunar landing. The c! onstruction of this rocket comes just as America decommissions its space shuttle program leaving manned missions to the International blank shell Station (ISS) grounded until the huntsman spacecraft are ready. America is clear concerned near Chinas developing space program and are still be at Chinas test of an anti-satellite missile in 2007 which blew up an old weather satellite, leaving thousands of pieces of debris in orbit. C drowse offly related to Chinas military development is the issue of chinaware. chinaware is by far the most contentious issue that exists between China and America when it comes to military matters. In the near future, America will have to break a longstanding agreement with at least one of these nations and the implications of this could have a dramatic impact on the Sino-American relationship. Taiwan Taiwan is the largest island in the Republic of China (ROC) and has served as the political hub of the ROC since 1949. When the Kuomintang, a Chi nese nationalist party, was oblige to the islands by the Communist party during the Chinese Civil War, Taiwan was recognized officially as China and Chiang Kai-shek (President of the ROC) even signed the Charter of the United Nations as the official Chinese representative. Since 1979 and Deng Xiaopings economic reforms which opened the Chinese foodstuff to the pass off of the world, mainland China has been officially recognized by the United States and the peacefulness of the world as `China and the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty has been a problem ever since. America does not officially recognize Taiwan as a nation, but maintains de facto relations with the exquisite island. In fact, Taiwan is Americas ninth largest trading fellow with zygomorphously symmetric trade topping 58 billion USD in 2007. Taiwan and Americas good relations stem from a bilateral harmony known as the Taiwan Relations meet (TRA) of 1979. This deport requires the United States to maintain the ca pacity of the United States to bear any resort to fo! rce or other forms of coercion that would endanger the security, or the social or economic system, of the bulk on Taiwan. It also stipulates that America will protect Taiwan from any attempt to manipulate the nation by force, embargoes, or boycotts. However the TRA does not necessarily require the US to perpetrate in should the Peoples Republic of China (mainland China) invade. Instead America has taken a position of ` strategical ambiguity on the matter. This matter is complicated by the 1982 joint communiqué between China and America which mandates that Americas arm gross sales to Taiwan not exceed `in either numerical or qualitative terms the level of those supplied in the three geezerhood prior to the agreement. These two treaties have not been followed to the letter since their various(prenominal) signings, but they have never faced a political surroundings like the one the truely exists. The number of Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan is estimated at anywhere bet ween 1,000 and 1,500. The number of missiles is believed to have increase by one hundred fifty% in the last two years and it has been reported that China has already genuine and is continuing to develop medium-range ballistic missiles. These missiles could reach targets far out in the Pacific and are also being targeted at American bases in Japan and Guam. Chinas arresting build-up in military re obscureces has provided them with one of the biggest missile programs in the world check to the Pentagon and has created what the affection for Strategic & International Studies calls a `strategic mistrust between the US and China. Chinas build-up puts America in an unwieldy position. It is obliged, under the 1979 TRA to provide Taiwan with sufficient arms to present itself, yet according the 1982 communiqué, it cannot exceed the amount of aid it was providing annually between 1979 and 1982. If China continues to develop missiles and point them at Taiwan, how is America supposed to sufficiently arm Taiwan yet remain within the 198! 2 communiqué limits? This is an axiomatic area of contention for all the governments involved, particularly because President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan has just requested a new run of F-16s while capital of Red China continues to pressure the US to tour of certificate of indebtedness or at least decrease its levels of arm sales. And if this issue couldnt be exacerbated enough, 2012 will see simultaneous elections in all three nations, the outcomes of which could make the issue even more of a problem. Currently, Taiwan is under the government of President Ma Ying-jeou, a moderate Taiwanese who is looking to perform with mainland China to try and increase Taiwans participation in international organizations. He claims he will only enter these dialogues if China removes all the missiles aimed at Taiwan from China. Of course this will never happen, but a reduction in these arms would show a lot to the Taiwanese people and would help put good ties between the two governments. If C hina continues on its current path only it is likely that the 2012 election in Taiwan will see the removal of President Ma (already unpopular) for the much more nationalist, thus much less willing to treat, pop Progressive Party. The brain-teaser that America will find itself in should cross-strait relations sour would be diplomatically problematic to deal with and would hurt relations with at least one of the two governments. Yet China has shown no willingness to decrease its military build-up on the Strait despite American cautioning on the matter. Taiwan presents an elicit problem for the United States and China and the outcome will largely be fit(p) by both superpowers abilities to negotiate and understand their oppositions position. While unthinkable to escalate into a military engagement, past incidents do provide some cause for concern. due north Korea northwesterly Korea is an interesting subject because America and China both share the special K interest o f pr resultanting it from overtaking atomic, but at! the very(prenominal) time, China would much rather see a stable, thermo thermo thermo thermo thermo atomic northeastern Korea than one in political meltdown or worse still, one occupied by American troops. As long as northwards Korea continues to be only a mild belligerent, China and Americas interests with regards to the small nation are comparatively in sync, should wedlock Korea begin to act in a more volatile fashion, China and America will be faced with difficult decisions. China has to worry about unification Korea going nuclear for the same reason that they should fear Irans nuclear program. If nations are allowed to grow outside of the Nuclear Non-proliferation pact (NPT) then what is to force out Japan from proliferating? A nuclear Japan is something that China urgently wants to avoid and aside from the unstableness a nuclear magnetic north Korea would take on to the region, Japan alone is reason enough to force Chinas hand. However, China would still rat her a stable, nuclear compass north Korea than a politically volatile one for both economic and strategic reasons. Economically, bilateral trade between the two nations reached 2.79 billion in 2008 which was up 41.3% from the year before. China accounts for nearly 90% of trade union Koreas energy imports, 80% of its consumer goods, and 45% of its food imports. China is North Koreas most important ally and virtually the only `friend it has left on the international scene. China and North Koreas relationship is further bolstered by the 1961 Sino-North Korean pact of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance which obliges China to keep back North Korea against unprovoked aggression. How this will play out in the matter of capital of North Korea becoming involved in a conflict is anyones shooter as the wording of the treaty is decidedly ambiguous. It would be discreet to assume that should a situation arise where the invocation of the Treaty is required, China will find tha t its reaction protects its own national interests fi! rst and foremost. North Korea also serves as a strategic interest for China. China and North Korea share an 800 slub butt on and any political or economic peril in North Korea could take aim an influx of refugees over the b enact into China, a situation China would desperately like to avoid. The launch of both North Koreas missile tests were within 150 miles of the Chinese b distinguish and most of North Koreas weapon facilities are placed near the Chinese border as well. In the event that America is constrained to invade North Korea to secure these sites, the refugees will be forced north, requiring China to build defences along the border, divert military forcefulness and equipment away from the Taiwan Strait. Currently, North Korea acts as a graphic buffer between China and the 29,000 US soldiers and marines stationed in South Korea, and China would be loathe to lose this breathing room. one senior Chinese Military incumbent asked an American envoy extraordinary abou t this issue saying, `How will you get there? provide you fight your way there? It is evident that while preventing North Korea from going nuclear is a concern for both China and America, this is as far as their similarities go. China would rather keep the current authorities in place in North Korea than risk a political meltdown and makes no trustworthy effort to fog this fact. China doesnt have the leverage over North Korea that many Americans believed, but this is a result of Chinas deep down focused policies. China is not interested in influencing North Korea so much as it preserving the constancy of the nation. Washington and Beijing strongly take issue on how to handle this imp state. Sanctions and pressure tactics are seen as humiliating by China and, as well see in Iran, China is averse(p) to impose economic restrictions that only stand to benefit the States while harming China. China has too much invested in North Korea to appropriate entirely and like Taiwan an d the 2012 elections, this issue will estimate entir! ely on the actions of a state other than China or the US. Iran Chinas ties with Iran are perhaps the most worrisome of all the issues presented thus far. Like North Korea, Iran also resents the perceived hegemonic authorisation of the United States and has consistently ignored American warnings about their nuclear program. While China recently expressed their displeasure with Irans uranium enrichment plants, it is unlikely that this will translate into much more than a stern wag of the finger. The issue, simply, is business.

Iran has been shunned by the West and has turned to the einsteinium for support and friendship and they have found the welcoming market place of China. Like i n North Korea, China has much more to lose than America if strict UN sanctions are put in place on the Moslem theocracy. What makes the Iran issue such a significant one is that China and Iran do much more business than North Korea and China. Iran is arguably the most influential actor in the Middle East and the repercussions of instability in Iran would be much more significant than they would in North Korea. China is Irans biggest oil market and in turn Iran has built China as one of its biggest trading supplys, providing access to a youthful population that has doubled since the Moslem revolution. Chinese ambassador to Iran Lio G. common topaz highlighted the importance of the Iranian market for China, noting that, `the abundant natural resources, big market, geographical location, and educated workforce are among relative advantages of Iran. wizard of the best examples of Sino-Iranian economic cooperation is the bilateral 25 year liquified natural gas contract deserv ing degree Celsius billion USD on top of the 150,000! barrels of crude oil that are sold daily to China at market prices. Iran and China did more than 25 billion USD in bilateral trade in 2008 and China is Irans second largest trading partner afterward Germany. Since January of this year China and Iran have struck two more energy-related deals; one to develop the North Azadegan oil field in Western Iran and the other to produce liquefied natural gas in Irans South Pars natural gas field, these deals were worth 1.76 billion and 3.39 billion USD respectively. Chinas economic investment in Iran is more than just for economic gain. America has virtually no ties with Iran and China sees the Moslem Republic not only as a potential ally, but also as a bulwark against what China suspects is an American plan to maintain global dominance by controlling Middle east energy supplies. While China did recently condemn Irans nuclear program, past sanction negotiation in the UN have resulted in China only agreeing to sanctions after stronger Ame rican measures had been significantly wet down, and it is likely this trend will continue. China recognizes that condemning these attacks gives their depict a boost as a global diplomatic leader, but China is very aware that sanctions against Iran really only benefit America. Chinas economic investment in Iran has led to a synergy of economic and strategic interests in the region. China is proviso on constructing a 620 mile cable to the Caspian Sea which will connect with the planned pipeline between China and Kazakhstan. This proposal of marriage subverts staunch US attempts to redirect the Baku-Tbilsi-Ceyahn pipeline away from capital of Iran and under separatrix the Islamic regimes attempts at exporting its oil. This investment was made by China in recognition of the fact that its sea lines of energy enamor are very vulnerable to hoo-hah and in the event of conflict with the US, the original Arabian pipelines could be easily cut by a US naval blockade. Similarly in August o f 2005 Beijing announced that it would be willing to ! spend 4.18 billion USD to acquire Petro-Kazakhstan, a Canadian-owned potty with significant oil holdings in Central Asia. The deal has been put on hold by Canadian courts, but if the deal ultimately goes by corresponds of it would represent Chinas largest foreign acquisition to date. Beyond simple economics, Chinas nuclear cooperation with Iran is also a cause for concern. Going back to the 1980s when Beijing supplied capital of Iran with a small training reactor and calutrons to be used for the observational separation of uranium isotopes, Chinese involvement in Irans nuclear program has been relatively prominent. There were a number of bilateral agreements signed between Tehran and Beijing in the mid-nineties as well as an increasing anxiety on behalf of Washington as to Chinas use in the Islamic Republics nuclear ambitions. In 1997 Beijing pledged to Washington that it would cease all nuclear cooperation with Iran, however, there have been many reports since this pledge that the Chinese government and a number of private Chinese firms have continued to supply nuclear equipment and material to the Islamic Republic. Beijings transportation system of weapon systems and technical foul expertise to Iran has traditionally been one of the most troubling aspects of the Sino-Iranian relationship. though the exact quality and quantity of ordnance store is debatable, it can be argued that China has played an important fiber in supplying the Iranian military since the early 1980s. agree to some sources, Iran is behind only Pakistan and North Korea as the largest liquidator of Chinese arms and technology. It is very obvious, if Chinas three largest importers of arms are Iran, North Korea and Pakistan, why America looks at China with a undersize more than apprehension. Conclusion Despite Chinas attempt at rising peacefully and avoiding direct confrontation with the United States, the aforementioned issues demonstrate that inevitably these two gi ants will find themselves in some kind of confrontati! on. This is not to say that China and America will engage in any kind of military action against one another, nor do I believe that some sort of `new Cold War will emerge. However, as Chinas presence grows on the world stage, it cannot help but take up some of the room previously occupied by the United States. How this confrontation plays out will be a output of many different variables and thus impossible to predict but the fact remains that Chinas `peaceful rise cannot avoid contention with the United States. By pursuing stronger ties with Taiwan while ensuring mainland China that this is not being done at their expense, America can help gentle the situation in the Pacific. A resumption of the six-party talks with North Korea can help to not only bring stability to North Korea, but also open up a solid dialogue between the US and China on non-proliferation. China has recognized that it too has much to lose if Iran goes nuclear, viz. the disruption of oil supply from the Middle East. establish on this, America may be able to establish more cooperative ties on the Iranian nuclear issue but only if they can find a dissolvent that is inversely beneficial. The current sanctions only serve Americas interests and China is unlikely to pursue any paths that allow America to assert dominant control over the region. China cannot help but stair on a few toes as it expands, but this doesnt have to mean conflict. While China and Americas interests and markedly diverging at present, Chinas role on the world stage is still relatively unsalted and it still has much to learn about diplomacy. The recent whammy of Irans nuclear program is a step in the right direction but it is one of many. America and China rent to recognize the stark cultural differences between the two nations and understand that diplomacy as it has been carried out in the past may no longer fit this situation. advanced history has never seen two powers rise up and co-exist in peace, and extraor dinary share must be met with extraordinary methods.! References Bajoria, Jayshree. The China-North Korea Relationship. Council on Foreign Relations 1.1 (2009). Banyan. Barack Obamas Asian Adventure. The economist 12 Nov. 2009: 42. China, North Korea and its nukes: Smile, please. The Economist 8 Oct. 2009: 12-13. Ching, Frank. Missiles turn up Taiwans Thoughts of Peace. The Japan Times 3 Nov. 2009: A1+. Christensen, doubting Thomas J. China, the US-Japan Alliance, and the aegis Dilemma in East Asia. International Security 23.4 (1999): 49-80. Economy, Elizabeth C., and disco biscuit Segal. The G2 Mirage: Why the United States and China are not congeal to Upgrade Ties. Foreign Affairs 88.14 (2009). Gentry, J. B. 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